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Volume 17, Issue 3 (2025)
Iran J War Public Health 2025, 17(3): 269-278 |
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Received: 2025/06/15 | Accepted: 2025/07/29 | Published: 2025/08/10
Received: 2025/06/15 | Accepted: 2025/07/29 | Published: 2025/08/10
How to cite this article
Naghizadeh Baghi A, Zare Abandansari M, Pourzabih Sarhamami K, Nobakht F. Foresight in Disability Sport and Strategies for Inclusive Health Policies. Iran J War Public Health 2025; 17 (3) :269-278
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URL: http://ijwph.ir/article-1-1653-en.html
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1- Department of Sports Management, Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
2- Department of Sports Management, Faculty of Sport Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
2- Department of Sports Management, Faculty of Sport Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
Abstract (696 Views)
Aims: Sport and physical activity are essential for maintaining physical health, improving mental well-being, and fostering social participation among persons with disabilities. In Iran, despite growing policy attention, challenges, such as limited infrastructure, a lack of adaptive equipment, weak coordination among institutions, and unstable funding restrict equitable access to sport. These constraints reduce opportunities for physical activity and increase the risk of non-communicable diseases and social isolation. This study aimed to identify strategic drivers shaping the future of disability sport in Iran by 2034.
Instrument & Methods: This foresight study used a three-round Delphi process and was conducted on 14 national experts in disability sport. The analysis utilized MICMAC software for cross-impact evaluation and the Scenario Wizard for scenario development. Identified drivers were classified under six domains, including political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal (PESTEL), and prioritized based on expert consensus.
Findings: A total of 21 key drivers were identified, with four emerging as critical, including integrating disability sport into national policy, providing financial incentives for disability-focused clubs, ensuring currency stability for importing equipment, and offering specialized insurance for athletes with disabilities. Scenario analysis produced eight plausible futures, ranging from “peak prosperity,” characterized by full institutional support and health-oriented infrastructure, to “systemic decline,” marked by fragmented services and limited access.
Conclusion: Positioning disability sport as a public health priority in Iran requires strong political commitment, stable financing, access to adaptive technologies, and inclusive environmental design.
Instrument & Methods: This foresight study used a three-round Delphi process and was conducted on 14 national experts in disability sport. The analysis utilized MICMAC software for cross-impact evaluation and the Scenario Wizard for scenario development. Identified drivers were classified under six domains, including political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal (PESTEL), and prioritized based on expert consensus.
Findings: A total of 21 key drivers were identified, with four emerging as critical, including integrating disability sport into national policy, providing financial incentives for disability-focused clubs, ensuring currency stability for importing equipment, and offering specialized insurance for athletes with disabilities. Scenario analysis produced eight plausible futures, ranging from “peak prosperity,” characterized by full institutional support and health-oriented infrastructure, to “systemic decline,” marked by fragmented services and limited access.
Conclusion: Positioning disability sport as a public health priority in Iran requires strong political commitment, stable financing, access to adaptive technologies, and inclusive environmental design.
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