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Volume 17, Issue 3 (2025)
Iran J War Public Health 2025, 17(3): 1001-1012 |
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Received: 2025/08/15 | Accepted: 2025/09/29 | Published: 2025/07/19
Received: 2025/08/15 | Accepted: 2025/09/29 | Published: 2025/07/19
How to cite this article
Naghizadeh Baghi A, Zare Abandansari M, Pourzabih Sarhamami K, Nobakht F. Foresight on Disability Sport: Strategic Drivers and Future Scenarios for Advancing Inclusive Health and Sport Policies. Iran J War Public Health 2025; 17 (3) :1001-1012
URL: http://ijwph.ir/article-1-1653-en.html
URL: http://ijwph.ir/article-1-1653-en.html
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Authors
Abbas Naghizadeh Baghi *1, Mohammad Zare Abandansari, Khadijeh Pourzabih Sarhamami, Farzad Nobakht
1- , a.naghizadeh@uma.ac.ir
Abstract (20 Views)
Background: Sport and physical activity are essential for maintaining physical health, improving mental well-being, and fostering social participation among persons with disabilities (PwD). In Iran, despite growing policy attention, challenges such as limited infrastructure, lack of adaptive equipment, weak coordination among institutions, and unstable funding restrict equitable access to sport. These constraints reduce physical activity opportunities and increase the risk of non-communicable diseases and social isolation.
Methods: This foresight study aimed to identify strategic drivers shaping the future of disability sport in Iran by 2034. A three-round Delphi process was conducted with 14 national experts in disability sport. The analysis used the MICMAC software for cross-impact evaluation and Scenario Wizard for scenario development. Identified drivers were classified under six domains political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal (PESTEL) and prioritized based on expert consensus.
Results: A total of 21 key drivers were identified, with four emerging as critical: integrating disability sport into national policy, financial incentives for disability-focused clubs, currency stability for importing equipment, and specialized insurance for athletes with disabilities. Scenario analysis produced eight plausible futures, ranging from “peak prosperity,” with full institutional support and health-oriented infrastructure, to “systemic decline,” marked by fragmented services and limited access.
Conclusion: Positioning disability sport as a public health priority in Iran requires strong political commitment, stable financing, access to adaptive technologies, and inclusive environmental design. Embedding foresight-based, cross-sector strategies into national health and sport policies can reduce health disparities, improve quality of life, and ensure equitable participation for PwD
Methods: This foresight study aimed to identify strategic drivers shaping the future of disability sport in Iran by 2034. A three-round Delphi process was conducted with 14 national experts in disability sport. The analysis used the MICMAC software for cross-impact evaluation and Scenario Wizard for scenario development. Identified drivers were classified under six domains political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal (PESTEL) and prioritized based on expert consensus.
Results: A total of 21 key drivers were identified, with four emerging as critical: integrating disability sport into national policy, financial incentives for disability-focused clubs, currency stability for importing equipment, and specialized insurance for athletes with disabilities. Scenario analysis produced eight plausible futures, ranging from “peak prosperity,” with full institutional support and health-oriented infrastructure, to “systemic decline,” marked by fragmented services and limited access.
Conclusion: Positioning disability sport as a public health priority in Iran requires strong political commitment, stable financing, access to adaptive technologies, and inclusive environmental design. Embedding foresight-based, cross-sector strategies into national health and sport policies can reduce health disparities, improve quality of life, and ensure equitable participation for PwD
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