en توانبخشی جانبازان يا معلولان Rehabilitation of Veterans or Handicapped توصیفی و نظرسنجی Descriptive & Survey <span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,serif"><span style="color:#f79646">Aims:</span></span></span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,serif"> Sport and physical activity are essential for maintaining physical health, improving mental well-being, and fostering social participation among persons with disabilities. In Iran, despite growing policy attention, challenges, such as limited infrastructure, a lack of adaptive equipment, weak coordination among institutions, and unstable funding restrict equitable access to sport. These constraints reduce opportunities for physical activity and increase the risk of non-communicable diseases and social isolation. This study aimed to identify strategic drivers shaping the future of disability sport in Iran by 2034.</span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,serif"><span style="color:#f79646">Instrument & Methods:</span></span></span></b> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,serif">This foresight study used a three-round Delphi process and was conducted on 14 national experts in disability sport. The analysis utilized MICMAC software for cross-impact evaluation and the Scenario Wizard for scenario development. Identified drivers were classified under six domains, including political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal (PESTEL), and prioritized based on expert consensus.</span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,serif"><span style="color:#f79646">Findings:</span></span></span></b> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,serif">A total of 21 key drivers were identified, with four emerging as critical, including integrating disability sport into national policy, providing financial incentives for disability-focused clubs, ensuring currency stability for importing equipment, and offering specialized insurance for athletes with disabilities. Scenario analysis produced eight plausible futures, ranging from &ldquo;peak prosperity,&rdquo; characterized by full institutional support and health-oriented infrastructure, to &ldquo;systemic decline,&rdquo; marked by fragmented services and limited access.</span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,serif"><span style="color:#f79646">Conclusion:</span></span></span></b> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,serif">Positioning disability sport as a public health priority in Iran requires strong political commitment, stable financing, access to adaptive technologies, and inclusive environmental design. </span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp; Sports,Public Health,Health,Policy,Scenario Planning, 269 278 http://ijwph.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-2345-7&slc_lang=en&sid=1 A. Naghizadeh Baghi 15300319475328460028273 15300319475328460028273 Yes Department of Sports Management, Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran M. Zare Abandansari 15300319475328460028274 15300319475328460028274 No Department of Sports Management, Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran Kh. Pourzabih Sarhamami 15300319475328460028275 15300319475328460028275 No Department of Sports Management, Faculty of Sport Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran F. Nobakht 15300319475328460028276 15300319475328460028276 No Department of Sports Management, Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran